Prevalence and probability estimates for people in Canada
Variable | Point estimate (95% CI) | Distribution† (parameters) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Overall* | Male | Female | ||
Epidemiology | ||||
Prevalence of AAA (16), (19), (20) | 0.015 (0.013–0.017) | 0.004 (0.003–0.005) | β | |
Probability of AAA (16), (19), (20) | ||||
Small AAA | 0.788 | 0.788 | Dirichlet (4.73; 0.72; 0.55) | |
Medium AAA | 0.120 | 0.119 | Dirichlet (4.73; 0.72; 0.55) | |
Large AAA | 0.092 | 0.093 | Dirichlet (4.73; 0.72; 0.55) | |
Probabilities | ||||
Accept invitation for screening (13) | 0.733 | β | ||
3-month rupture of small AAA (21), (22) | 0.000095 (0.000076–0.0001) | 0.00032 | β | |
3-month rupture of medium AAA (21), (22) | 0.002 (0.002–0.003) | 0.0036 | β | |
3-month rupture of large AAA (21) | 0.016 (0.011–0.020) | 0.05944 | β | |
Incidental AAA diagnosis (23) | 0.01 (0.010–0.011) | β | ||
Death from rupture before emergency repair (24) | 0.500 (0.200–0.800) | β | ||
Scheduled repair: Open/EVAR (25) | 0.418/0.582 | β | ||
Emergency repair: Open/EVAR (25) | 0.753/0.247 | β | ||
Death after scheduled open repair (25) | 0.0390 (0.0340–0.0460) | β | ||
Death after scheduled EVAR (25) | 0.0110 (0.0090–0.0150) | β | ||
Death after emergency open repair (26) | 0.3798 (0.3410–0.4163) | β | ||
Death after emergency EVAR (26) | 0.2076 (0.1580–0.2542) | β | ||
3-month all-cause mortality (2020), (27) yr | ||||
65–69 | 0.0035 | 0.0022 | β | |
70–74 | 0.0053 | 0.0035 | β | |
75–79 | 0.0088 | 0.006 | β | |
80–84 | 0.0153 | 0.0107 | β | |
85–89 | 0.0277 | 0.0202 | β | |
≥ 90 | 0.0547 | 0.0469 | β |