Table 1:

Model parameters used in the transmission model^*

Parameter	Age group, yr	Health status	Value	Details	Source
Latent period, d	All	All	2.5	Time from exposure to onset of infectiousness	References (18)– (20)
Presymptomatic infectious period, d	All	All	1	Duration of infectiousness before symptom onset	References (18)– (20)
Infectious period (mild to moderate), d	All	All	6	Symptomatic infectious period for mild-to- moderate cases (in absence of isolation)	References (18)– (20)
Infectious period (severe), d	All	All	6	Symptomatic infectious period for infectiousness for severe cases; assumed equal to time to hospital admission	References (18)– (20)
Basic reproduction number	All	All	2.3	Average number of secondary infections derived from a primary infection in a susceptible population	Reference (6)
Time in quarantine, d	All	All	14	Duration of quarantine for exposed cases	Current policy
Relative risk of transmission for cases in isolation	All	All	0.1	Isolated cases are assumed to have reduced transmission relative to unrecognized cases	Assumption
Average length of stay in hospital for cases not requiring ICU care, d	All	All	10		Reference (21)
Average length of stay in hospital before ICU admission, d	All	All	3	For severe cases requiring ICU care	Reference (21)
Average length of stay in ICU, d	All	All	21	For severe cases requiring ICU care	Reference (22)
Average length of stay in hospital after ICU, d	All	All	21	For severe cases requiring ICU care	Reference (22)
Probability of severe infection				Severe infections requiring hospital admission	Reference (21)
	< 15	No comorbidities	0.01
	15–49	No comorbidities	0.03
	50–69	No comorbidities	0.12
	≥ 70	No comorbidities	0.35
	< 15	Comorbidities	0.02
	15–49	Comorbidities	0.06
	50–69	Comorbidities	0.25
	≥ 70	Comorbidities	0.76
Probability severe case requires admission to ICU	All	All	0.26		Reference (21)
Probability of death in cases admitted to ICU					Reference (22)
	< 15	No comorbidities	0
	15–49	No comorbidities	0.2
	50–69	No comorbidities	0.36
	≥ 70	No comorbidities	0.58
	< 15	Comorbidities	0
	15–49	Comorbidities	0.53
	50–69	Comorbidities	0.9
	≥ 70	Comorbidities	1

Note: ICU = intensive care unit.
↵* A full model description is provided in Appendix 1 (available at www.cmaj.ca/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1503/cmaj.200476/-/DC1). Age group and health status refer to the population groups to which the parameter value was applied.